TERMS OF REFERENCE (TOR)
Regional Climate, Environmental & Anticipatory Action Modelling Consultant
REF: PD-RLC-01288
Summary Table
Position Tittle
Regional Climate, Environmental and Anticipatory Action Modelling Consultant
Donor
Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations of the European Commission (DG ECHO)
Contract Type
Consultancy
Primary Program & Role
IMPAACT: Institutionalizing Interoperable Multi-Hazard Preparedness and Anticipatory Action
Contract Duration
10 months contract duration to be executed on a phased approach over the program period.
Program Period
1st December 2026 – 30th April 2028
Geographic Coverage
Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti with strong regional-level engagement
Duty Station
Regional /HEARO-Nairobi
Reports to
IMPAACT Consortium Coordinator
Technical Coordination
ACF regional and country technical teams; IMPAACT Data Analyst, IGAD/ICPAC; local partners and relevant national institutions
- Background
Action Against Hunger leads the global movement to end hunger. We innovate solutions, advocate for change, and reach millions of people every year with proven hunger prevention and treatment programmes. As a non-profit organisation working across multiple countries, Action Against Hunger partners with communities to address the root causes of hunger, including climate change, conflict, inequity and emergencies. We strive to create a world free from hunger, for everyone, for good.
Action Against Hunger-USA (ACF-USA) is an independent international NGO and is part of the Action Against Hunger International Network, which provides humanitarian relief in over 50 countries worldwide in Nutrition, Health, WASH, FSL and MHPSS, Gender & Protection sectors. Action Against Hunger-USA currently manages operations in 8 countries: Kenya, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia, Somalia, Zambia and Haiti. It has over $100 million in programs, and approximately 2,000 staff based in various country offices and the three Head Quarters Locations namely New York City, Washington D.C, and Nairobi.
Summary of the consultancy
Action Against Hunger (ACF), in consortium with the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), is implementing a DG ECHO-funded regional disaster preparedness program, Institutionalizing Interoperable Multi-Hazard Preparedness and Anticipatory Action (IMPAACT), across Ethiopia, Somalia, and Djibouti. The program aims to strengthen interoperable, government-owned, and community-responsive systems for multi-hazard disaster preparedness and anticipatory action by operationalizing the SCALAA methodology and IGAD Anticipatory Action Roadmap through four interdependent result areas. These include strengthening early warning and anticipatory action protocols, standard operating procedures (SOPs), cross-border triggers, preparedness and contingency planning, and Crisis Modifier arrangements.
Achieving these objectives requires specialized technical expertise in climate and environmental risk analysis, anticipatory action modelling, trigger development and validation, and the integration of early-warning information into operational decision-making. The Regional Climate, Environmental and Anticipatory Action Modelling Specialist/Consultant will therefore provide targeted, time-bound technical support, working closely with ACF, IGAD/ICPAC, and relevant country-level stakeholders and consortium partners to ensure that climate and environmental risk information is translated into scientifically robust, context-specific, and operationally actionable anticipatory action mechanisms. The consultancy will also support the consistent integration of environmental considerations and compliance with DG ECHO’s Minimum Environmental Requirements across relevant program interventions. In addition, this specialized expertise is essential to safeguarding the scientific rigor and validation of trigger thresholds, ensuring consistent application of environmental requirements, and enabling the program to contribute meaningfully to ICPAC’s regional early-warning products, the SCALAA trigger harmonization framework, and the broader evidence base on climate-informed anticipatory action. Without this support, the technical credibility and regional added value of the program could be significantly constrained, limiting its ability to strengthen interoperable, evidence-based, and risk-informed anticipatory action systems across Ethiopia, Somalia, and Djibouti.
Purpose: To provide specialized regional expertise in climate science, environmental risk analysis, and anticipatory action modelling to strengthen multi-hazard early warning, risk analysis, preparedness, and anticipatory action under the IMPAACT program, translating regional and national climate information into scientifically robust, practical, and timely operational decisions.
Engagement: the consultant is expected to engage directly with IGAD/ICPAC, national meteorological and hydrological services, FAO modelling teams, National DRM authorities including EDMRC, SODMA, NDRMC, CIGRC, ONARS and SSMD, IGAD AA TWG, IGAD Prepare, FEWS NET, IPC, SCALAA project team and humanitarian coordination platforms, ensuring climate intelligence is systematically embedded in operational preparedness and early warning systems.
Delivery: the consultant is expected to deliver technically sound, operationally relevant and context-sensitive climate and environmental outputs including calibrated trigger matrices, validated modelling products, risk assessments, capacity-strengthening tools, NEAT+ screenings and scientific briefs, that can support Early Action Protocols and Anticipatory Action Plans directly applied to protect vulnerable populations across the Horn of Africa, including the three IMPAACT targeted countries. A summary of the indicative, time-bound deliverables expected during the consultancy period is provided in Section 5.
Overall and Specific Objectives
Overall objective: Strengthen the operational use of climate, environmental and multi-hazard risk information within IMPAACT preparedness and anticipatory action processes through an integrated, decision-support model product that builds on and adds value to existing IGAD/ICPAC forecasting and multi-hazard modelling capabilities, while strengthening regional-to-national linkages and translating risk information into actionable early-warning and anticipatory action decisions.
Specific Objectives:
- Develop a complementary Climate, Environment and Anticipatory Action Model Product(s) that build on existing IGAD/ICPAC climate forecasting, environmental monitoring and multi-hazard modelling capabilities, adding value through enhanced risk interpretation, impact-oriented analysis and the translation of existing information into operational preparedness and anticipatory action decisions.
- Strengthen the integration and application of existing regional climate, environmental and multi-hazard risk information within IMPAACT preparedness, early-warning and anticipatory action processes, avoiding duplication of existing modelling initiatives and promoting coherence across regional and national systems.
- Support the review, contextualization and refinement of hazard-specific indicators, risk thresholds and forecast-based triggers, ensuring their relevance to national and local risk contexts and their compatibility with existing IGAD/ICPAC multi-hazard frameworks and products.
- Provide technical interpretation and value-added analysis of seasonal, sub-seasonal and other relevant climate and environmental information, including the assessment of forecast probabilities, uncertainty, potential impacts and implications for operational decision-making.
- Strengthen the translation and interoperability of regional climate and multi-hazard information into national and country-level early-warning, disaster risk management, preparedness and anticipatory action systems, including through tailored decision-support products and operational guidance.
- Support the application of existing regional multi-hazard modelling outputs to strengthen cross-border and transboundary preparedness and anticipatory action, with particular attention to compounding, cascading and interconnected climate and environmental risks.
- Strengthen institutional and stakeholder capacities to interpret, contextualize and operationalize existing climate forecasts, multi-hazard risk information, environmental indicators, forecast probabilities and uncertainty in support of evidence-based preparedness and anticipatory action.
4. Scope of Work
Climate and Environmental Risk Analysis
- Review and synthesize existing regional and national climate, environmental and multi-hazard risk information, models and analytical products relevant to Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti, drawing on available IGAD/ICPAC and other relevant institutional capabilities and resources.
- Map and assess existing regional and national climate and environmental datasets, forecasting products, early-warning systems, multi-hazard models and monitoring mechanisms to identify opportunities for integration, complementarity and operational application within IMPAACT.
- Assess priority climate and environmental hazards, their seasonal and spatial characteristics, and potential compounding, cascading and transboundary impacts across the three countries.
- Identify critical information, analytical and operational gaps in existing risk assessment and early-warning systems, particularly those affecting the translation of regional forecasts and multi-hazard information into national and sub-national preparedness and anticipatory action.
- Support the contextualization and refinement of existing climate and environmental risk profiles, drawing on ava...